The Shadow Fleet
Western sanctions on Russian oil were designed to choke off revenue. Instead they built a parallel maritime order — with its own flags, its own insurers, and now its own navy.
Geopolitics, Shaken
Analysis of power, alliances, and international order.
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The Middle Eastern Cold War: Two Blocs, One Iron Curtain
A structural realignment has produced two coalitions across the Middle East ( Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan versus Israel-UAE ) while a new Iron Curtain descends from the Arctic through the Caucasus into Central Asia. The two systems intersect at the chokepoints. The old frames do not fit.
The Shadow Fleet
Western sanctions on Russian oil were designed to choke off revenue. Instead they built a parallel maritime order — with its own flags, its own insurers, and now its own navy.
The Hollow Flag: Why Freedom Without Capability Is Ceremony
A state can have a flag, a UN seat, and a constitution — and still be unfree in any operational sense. The maritime coalitions that endure are the ones that protect the domestic capability to pursue freedom, not just the formal right to claim it.
The Load-Bearing Structure
The era conservatives romanticize had 52% corporate tax rates and no buybacks. The Nordic model wasn't built on oil or homogeneity; it was built on a deal: share the gains and losses of structural change, and the economy innovates. What broke that deal in the US? SEC Rule 10b-18, the rise of stock buybacks, and a shift from retain-and-reinvest to downsize-and-distribute. Now the velocity of money has collapsed, the top 0.1% captured almost all gains, and antitrust's price-only lens missed the platform monopolies. Economic elasticity — the capacity to absorb shocks and endure — is built by protecting the people who produce the value.
A World at War Is Fusing at Sea
Ukraine's strikes on Iranian shipping in the Caspian Sea show how separate wars are fusing through the maritime commons, and why command of the sea must now be re-earned on water that carries everyone's war.
The Gated Seas: When Open Water Stops Being Open
How politically conditioned access to the world's maritime chokepoints is replacing open transit, and what the long history of sea power says about whether the seas can be re-gated.
The Geography of Endurance: Why Maritime Coalitions Outlast Land Empires
Why maritime coalitions systematically outlast continental autocracies over the long economic and military horizon, through Sarah Paine's lens of sea power versus land power.
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Analysis of power, alliances, and international order. Long-form analysis of the forces shaping the international order, published when the stakes justify the length.
Read next
- The Middle Eastern Cold War: Two Blocs, One Iron Curtain — The Shadow Fleet
- The Shadow Fleet — The Middle Eastern Cold War: Two Blocs, One Iron Curtain , The Hollow Flag: Why Freedom Without Capability Is Ceremony
- The Hollow Flag: Why Freedom Without Capability Is Ceremony — The Shadow Fleet , The Load-Bearing Structure
- The Load-Bearing Structure — The Hollow Flag: Why Freedom Without Capability Is Ceremony , A World at War Is Fusing at Sea
- A World at War Is Fusing at Sea — The Load-Bearing Structure , The Gated Seas: When Open Water Stops Being Open
- The Gated Seas: When Open Water Stops Being Open — A World at War Is Fusing at Sea , The Geography of Endurance: Why Maritime Coalitions Outlast Land Empires
- The Geography of Endurance: Why Maritime Coalitions Outlast Land Empires — The Gated Seas: When Open Water Stops Being Open